The illegal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed at the start of 2024 between Ethiopia and a tiny secessionist group in northern Somalia’s Somaliland region once again proved Ethiopia’s expansionist character.
It does not take legal experts to conclude, based on the AU Charter, that Ethiopia was wrong to sign an agreement with the Somaliland region of Somalia.
Somaliland is erroneously and deliberately called a “country” by some powers with vested interests. The deal, which effectively allowed Ethiopia to occupy sovereign Somali territorial waters, was rejected by all. It bypassed the legally recognized Federal Government in Mogadishu and threatened to open Pandora’s box of conflict and mayhem across the region, if not the continent.
Of course, this is unsurprising for followers of developments from the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia invaded and later refused to leave – for over 20 years – sovereign Eritrean territories, including the often-spoken-about rich region of Badme. In 2002, an international Border Commission in the Hague ruled that Badme was a sovereign Eritrean territory. Still, Ethiopia refused to budge, holding the region hostage for two decades and preventing the physical demarcation of the border.
Interestingly, and in a similar context to the Somalia-Ethiopia “negotiations,” Ethiopia kept asking for dialogue and negotiations. The leadership in Eritrea, however, fully aware of the ploy that this represented and the powers backing Ethiopia’s illegal actions, remained steadfast and committed to a legally binding ruling.
The then-Eritrean Ambassador to the African Union, Girma Asmerom, made an epitomized statement that this commitment to legality and truth: “If Ethiopia withdraws its army from occupied sovereign Eritrean territory, including the town of Badme, in the morning, dialogue between the two countries will start in the afternoon.”
Somalia and Ethiopia: Locked in Rivalry
Fast forward to today, and the situation seems to be repeating itself. Of course, the case of Somalia is even more complex, as the country continues to face countless challenges, including externally directed terrorism, clannism, and overall insecurity. In addition, the security landscape in the country includes a growing role from countries near and far, namely Egypt, Türkiye, and the Gulf countries.
As mentioned above, the Horn of African nation of Somalia is not new to conflict, as it has battled with civil war and terrorism for decades, with growing global competition for resources, trade, and security interests. In addition to this, Somalia is now forced to face this new threat by Ethiopia – a threat that undermines its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Somalia Signs Security Pact with Egypt
Within the above context, we must examine the security and defense pacts that Somalia is considering and engaged in. Egypt is the latest country to sign a defense pact with Somalia to strengthen security cooperation.
At a press conference with his counterpart, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud lauded the pact as historic and a “testament to a future common defense against international terrorism we are combating both home and abroad.” President Mohamud thanked Cairo for its unwavering support of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
According to one study, Somalia-Egypt relations began in ancient times. The Somali Punt was necessary for the ancient Egyptians because of its luxury goods, incense, wood, and ivory. Egypt never saw Somalia as a threat and never considered invading it.
In addition, Egypt’s former president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, cared about the Horn of Africa nation because of Somalia’s strategic location and because Egypt was a member of the United Nations Advisory Council in Somalia in the 1950s. Somalia gained independence in 1960.
Ethiopia and Egypt: A Tense History
The security pact between Somalia and Egypt has further infuriated Ethiopia. Ethiopia has considered Egypt a rival as it is in dispute with Egypt over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The two countries have been engaged in negotiations but have yet to succeed in how they could benefit from the Nile without affecting the livelihoods of both peoples.
Egypt and Sudan, which rely on the river Nile for irrigation and other uses, say the dam will affect the lives of millions in their respective countries. Addis Ababa argues that the colonial-era agreement is unjust and that the hydroelectric project will benefit and improve people’s lives in the region.
According to the theory of water wars, water is a fundamental natural resource worldwide. The growing population and social, economic, and environmental needs create competition for this resource.
Egypt’s demand for water and food and Ethiopia’s demand for energy have been sources of tension and conflict. Those committed to peace and stability in Africa must continue to work for a win-win scenario.
Egypt and Somalia: A Proposal for a Constructive Way Forward
Although the renewed relations between Egypt and Somalia could help Mogadishu with training and equipping its security forces. Egypt plans to contribute troops to the AU’s peacekeeping mission to Somalia in January 2025. However, Egypt must be mindful that most Somalis have, on the whole, been critical of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) and continue to reject the proposed extension after December 2024.
Cairo should reanalyze this idea and instead should take a more positive role. For example, it could take the initiative to communicate with other Arab countries on the need to stop fuelling conflict and division in Somalia.
Some of these countries, particularly those from the Gulf, have no regard or respect for Somalia’s internationally recognized government. They have engaged with regional leaders and continuously undermined successive Somali central governments.
These regional leaders have contributed to tensions in the country by signing agreements with foreign governments in areas under their control without the central government’s consent.
The above-proposed role for Egypt would be much more constructive and welcomed by Somalis than deploying troops as part of an AU project. This act might infuriate many and paint Egypt in the same light as Ethiopia.
From ATMIS to AUSSOM: What’s in it for Somalia?
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is a peacekeeping mission that provides security support to Somalia and consists of troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.
The mission’s mandate ends in December 2024, when Somali forces are expected to fully take over the country’s security responsibilities. The current proposal is for ATMIS to be replaced with the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), scheduled to begin operations on 1 January 2025.
According to a communiqué from the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC), Egypt will deploy troops for the first time as part of the AUSSOM.
The Somali government has expressed its desire for Ethiopia not to be part of the new force. Addis Ababa argues that Somalia cannot make this decision unilaterally as, it claims, the terror group al-Shabab poses a direct threat to its country.
Ethiopia called on the AU and the United Nations to proceed carefully with the post-ATMIS peacekeeping deployment to avoid misunderstanding and regional tensions.
Türkiye’s Role as a Mediator Questioned
Ethiopia’s demand for Somalia’s land and water has prompted Türkiye to launch indirect talks with its neighbors. Türkiye enjoys goodwill from the Somali people since it was the first country to provide unwavering support to Somalia during the 2011 famine, during which more than 250,000 died.
During that period, followed by years of humanitarian and security support for Somalis, Türkiye won many hearts when the country and its people felt abandoned by the world.
Türkiye’s claimed objective is to ease the tension between Ethiopia and Somalia, but the talks concluded last week without agreement. Ethiopia insists on wanting Somali waters by any means. Somalia’s stand has remained the same – Ethiopia must openly rescind the deal with the Somaliland region before any talks can occur.
The recent talks led by Türkiye have put Ankara in a lousy light among Somalis, and many questioned the motives and whether Türkiye can even agree or sit with a country that wants Turkish land and water by force.
Türkiye faces a big test, and it appears Ethiopia will damage its reputation with Somalis if it does not stand with the internal laws that protect and recognize Somali borders and territories.
The way Türkiye handles this situation is significant because issues related to borders and national resources are highly emotive issues everywhere, and Somalia is no exception. Türkiye must be cautious, as its actions could impact the Turkish government and people’s views.
Ethiopia’s Declared Plans to Sabotage Somalia
Suppose Somalia successfully keeps Ethiopia out of the AUSSOM force and the planned talks in Ankara fail again. In that case, Ethiopia says it will withdraw its troops from Somalia in areas still under its control, particularly in Jubaland and South West Federal States.
This is in the hope that al-Shabab will overrun the local governments in those regions and take control of those cities, towns, and villages, leaving Somalia in a perpetual state of insecurity. Such moves made the AU mission, which began in 2007, a failure and threatened future peacekeeping missions in Somalia.
In addition, Ethiopia plans to interfere with planned elections in the breakaway region of Somaliland. The region’s plans to hold elections have failed to kick off as the forces loyal to Somaliland and Dhulbahante have been fighting since December 2022, leading to Hargeisa losing the territory and leaving it under the control of three regions instead of five.
Ethiopia is banking on President Muse Bihi of Somaliland winning the elections. Keeping Bihi in power, Ethiopia believes, would help it maintain its influence over Somalia.
Conclusion
Ethiopia is at the center of disputes with several countries in the region. These differences and tensions emanate from Addis Ababa’s track record of entering negotiations in bad faith and not honoring the agreements when agreeing on something. Indeed, the history of the Horn of Africa casts doubt on the sincerity of Ethiopia’s intentions in the current debates and talks surrounding Somalia’s security and territory.
On its behalf, Somalia has shown enough restraint in facing Ethiopia’s provocation. The talks over Somalia’s land and waters have united those once torn by clan divides. In the face of Ethiopia’s claims, the Somali spirit stands unyielding and determined not to cede an inch of their cherished land through force or negotiation. Instead, Somalis remain committed to regional peace and coexistence, which also means sharing resources under international norms, laws, and regulations.
Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad is a Somali scholar and political analyst, the Founder and Executive Director of the Afro-Asian Institute of Strategic Studies.
